Koyo Forecasting and Regional Timing in Japan
A koyo forecast tells you when Japan autumn leaves season should peak in each region, not when it will peak on a fixed calendar date.12 Treat the dates as staged estimates that revise through autumn, and you can place Hokkaido, Kyoto, and every stop between them in the right weeks.
Fees, rules, and requirements can change. Confirm current details at the Japan Meteorological Corporation forecast pages and the Japan National Tourism Organization autumn leaves pages.
Overview
紅葉 (koyo, "autumn foliage color in general") covers the full autumn color season, while 紅葉 / もみじ (momiji, "maple color") points to maples in particular.3 A 紅葉狩り (momijigari, "outing to admire autumn leaves") is the seasonal outing itself, the autumn counterpart to spring blossom viewing.3
The season runs from late September to early December depending on place, elevation, and yearly temperature (as of the JNTO seasonal framing).23 Color starts in the colder north and at high elevations, then moves south and down into city gardens, parks, and temples.2 That reverse direction run, north to south and high to low, is the single pattern to hold in mind for the rest of this article.24
How Koyo Forecasts Work
Forecasters publish opening estimates in early autumn, then refine them as temperatures settle. Use the first release for rough positioning and the later rounds for spot order.
Who issues foliage forecasts
The Japan Meteorological Corporation publishes the national foliage forecast used through this article, covering about 700 viewing locations plus about 3,000 mountains by altitude (as of 2026-09-02; confirm current figures with the Japan Meteorological Corporation).1 Its 2026 first round appeared on September 2, 2026, with the next update scheduled for early October (as of 2026-09-02).1
The Japan Weather Association publishes parallel spot level forecasts and staged color status through tenki.jp, with the 2026 round scheduled to start around late September (as of 2026-09-05).5 The Japan National Tourism Organization republishes a seasonal table sourced from Japan Weather Association data and marks it subject to change with weather.2
The method underneath both forecasters traces to Japan Meteorological Agency observation standards. The agency fixes sample trees for maple reddening and ginkgo yellowing, and a forecast date means the first day most of the sample tree leaves turn red or yellow.16
Red leaves versus yellow leaves
Forecasts split red leaves on maple trees from yellow leaves on ginkgo trees as separate series.1 In most listed cities the yellow series peaks earlier than the red series. Tokyo yellow peaks November 26 against red November 29, Osaka yellow November 24 against red December 4, and Kyoto yellow November 27 against red December 11 (as of 2026-09-02).1
The full 2026 first forecast red leaf table reads Sapporo November 7, Aomori November 13, Sendai November 25, Tokyo November 29, Kanazawa November 30, Nagano November 21, Nagoya December 2, Kyoto December 11, Osaka December 4, Wakayama December 11, Hiroshima November 28, Kochi December 9, Fukuoka December 7, and Kagoshima December 10 (as of 2026-09-02).1
The matching yellow leaf table reads Sapporo November 6, Aomori November 6, Sendai November 29, Tokyo November 26, Kanazawa November 10, Nagano November 14, Nagoya November 17, Kyoto November 27, Osaka November 24, Wakayama November 26, Hiroshima November 20, Kochi November 16, Fukuoka November 27, and Kagoshima November 27 (as of 2026-09-02).1
The forecaster characterizes 2026 overall as somewhat later than a typical year because of high temperatures (as of 2026-09-02).14 That lateness sits on top of the normal stagger, so both the order and the yearly shift matter.
How forecasts revise through autumn
A September forecast is an opening estimate. The October update and the late September spot level reporting round refine it before most Honshu lowland peaks arrive (as of 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-05).15
The mechanism is temperature driven. Foliage timing moves earlier when autumn temperatures run low and later when they run high.5 Tourism board tables carry the same warning in plain form, noting the forecast is subject to change.2
The 2025 season shows how revision works in practice. After a warm September into mid October, many 2025 spots peaked later than average, including Kyoto Arashiyama in late November against a mid November to early December average window (as of 2025-11-06).5
| Round | Coverage | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMC 1st forecast | About 700 spots plus about 3,000 mountains | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| JMC next update | Same national set, refined | early October 2026 (scheduled) | 1 |
| JWA tenki.jp 2026 round | Spot level peaks plus staged status | late September 2026 (scheduled start) | 5 |
| JWA 2025 3rd round example | Spot level peaks by region | 2025-11-06 | 5 |
Figures in this table reflect forecaster schedules current at research time (as of 2026-09-05).15
The revision rhythm looks like this:
Regional Timing From North to South
Read this section as a typical order with yearly wobble, not a timetable. Each city row below is scoped to its own lowland or mountain setting.
Hokkaido and high mountains first
High mountain color arrives weeks before lowland city color. On Hokkaido Mount Asahidake in Daisetsuzan National Park, foliage above 1,500 meters reaches its prime around September 21 to October 5 in the 2026 reporting (as of 2026-09-04; confirm current figures with the Japan Meteorological Corporation via Nippon.com).4
Sapporo lowland peaks sit far later. The 2026 first forecast puts Sapporo yellow November 6 and red November 7, about 2 and 10 days later than average respectively (as of 2026-09-02).1 The 2025 tourism board table gives the same shape in average terms, with Sapporo best season early November against an October 28 average and Kushiro late October against an October 16 average (as of the 2025 season).2
Spot level 2025 results fill out the island picture. Sounkyo reached peak in early October and Jozankei Onsen in mid October, both against early to mid October average windows (as of 2025-11-06).5
Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nikko next
Northern Honshu and the high central mountains follow Hokkaido. The 2026 first forecast puts Aomori red November 13 with yellow November 6, and Sendai red November 25 with yellow November 29 (as of 2026-09-02).1
Mountain and gorge spots peak earlier than those lowland city rows. In 2025, Oirase Stream peaked in late October, with Naruko Gorge and Urabandai also in late October, each against mid October to early November average windows (as of 2025-11-06).5
The same split holds around Tokyo. Nikko and the Kinugawa area peaked in late October against an early to mid October average window in 2025, Kamikochi peaked in mid October, and the Mount Takao summit window runs around November 6 to 20 in 2026 reporting (as of 2025-11-06 for the 2025 spots; as of 2026-09-04 for Takao).54 Tourism board averages give Sendai late November against November 21, Akita mid November against November 12, and Aomori mid November against November 13 for the 2025 season (as of the 2025 season).2
Tokyo, Kyoto, and central and southern Honshu
This is the core first timer window. The 2026 first forecast puts Tokyo red November 29 with yellow November 26, Kyoto red December 11 with yellow November 27, Osaka red December 4 with yellow November 24, Nagoya red December 2 with yellow November 17, Kanazawa red November 30 with yellow November 10, Nagano red November 21 with yellow November 14, and Hiroshima red November 28 with yellow November 20 (as of 2026-09-02).1
Averages behind those dates keep the order stable across years. The 2025 tourism board table puts Tokyo Chiyoda early December against a November 28 average, Nagoya early December against November 28, Osaka early December against December 1, Kanazawa early December against November 24, Nagano mid November against November 12, and Hiroshima late November against November 22 (as of the 2025 season).2
Spot rows add texture inside the city rows. In 2025, Kyoto Arashiyama peaked in late November against a mid November to early December average window, and Miyajima peaked in late November against a mid to late November average window (as of 2025-11-06).5 The tourism board still calls November the best month for most parts of Japan, inside a late September to early December full season framed by place and elevation.3
Kyoto red maples often peak after Tokyo color is already strong, so sequencing Tokyo first and Kyoto second raises the chance of catching both cities near peak in one trip.1
Kyushu last
The front ends in the south. The 2026 first forecast puts Fukuoka red December 7 with yellow November 27, Kagoshima red December 10 with yellow November 27, and Kochi red December 9 with yellow November 16 (as of 2026-09-02).1
Tourism board averages match that tail position. Fukuoka runs early December against December 1, Kochi mid December against December 2, and Kagoshima mid December against December 15 for the 2025 season (as of the 2025 season).2
Two Kyushu gorge spots show the same late placement at spot scale. Takachiho Gorge peaked in late November on average timing in 2025, and Shinya Yabakei peaked in mid November on the late side (as of 2025-11-06).5
| Area | Typical or average window | Dated forecast example | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaido mountains, Asahidake high zone | Sep 21 to Oct 5 prime | Same window reported for 2026 | 2026-09-04 | 4 |
| Sapporo lowland | Oct 28 average | 2026: yellow 11/6, red 11/7 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Tohoku lowland, Sendai scale | Nov 21 average | 2026: red 11/25, yellow 11/29 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Nikko and Kamikochi highland | Oct average windows | 2025: Nikko late Oct, Kamikochi mid Oct | 2025-11-06 | 5 |
| Tokyo lowland | Nov 28 average | 2026: yellow 11/26, red 11/29 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Kyoto city | Early Dec scale for red | 2026: yellow 11/27, red 12/11 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Osaka lowland | Dec 1 average | 2026: yellow 11/24, red 12/4 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Hiroshima lowland | Nov 22 average | 2026: yellow 11/20, red 11/28 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
| Fukuoka and Kagoshima | Dec 1 and Dec 15 averages | 2026: Fukuoka red 12/7, Kagoshima red 12/10 | 2026-09-02 | 1 |
Figures in this table mix long run averages with dated yearly forecasts; use the average column for early booking and the forecast column for final routing (as of 2026-09-05).152
Why Koyo Gives You a Wider Window Than Sakura
Sakura compresses each stop into a short bloom to fall sequence, as laid out in Cherry Blossom Forecasting: Why Sakura Season Is Not a Fixed Date. Koyo stretches each stop across a gradual color transition, which gives a multi week trip more room to land color somewhere even when one city misses.
The forecaster mountain and flatland windows show that stretch directly. For 2026, North Japan maple runs early October to mid November in mountains with mid October to late November in flatlands, East Japan maple runs late October to early December in mountains with late November to mid December in flatlands, and West Japan maple runs late October to early December in mountains with late November to mid December in flatlands (as of 2026-09-03 reporting of the JMC seasonal windows; confirm current windows with the Japan Meteorological Corporation).7
Secondary reporting makes the same comparison in plain terms, noting fall color stays viewable over a longer period than cherry blossoms and that yellow and red series often overlap so one series looks strong while the other is still photogenic nearby.7 The tourism board frames the same fact as a season shape, with late September to early December staged from north to south rather than a single week event.23
That flexibility is real but bounded. A wider regional window does not make a specific temple garden predictable months out. Spot peak color still depends on the yearly forecast and varies within a city, as the next section explains.
How to Plan a Trip Around the Forecast
Plan in two passes. Book the hard to change pieces on averages, then spend forecast information on the order of spots. If you have not settled how long your trip will be, see How Long Should Your Trip to Japan Be? before locking foliage weeks.
Book on averages, refine on forecasts
City averages anchor early booking. Published averages such as Tokyo November 28, Osaka December 1, and Sapporo October 28 sit beside yearly trend columns precisely so travelers can separate the stable order from the yearly shift.2 Peak foliage weeks also strain lodging supply and rates, so read The 2025–2026 Accommodation Capacity Crunch: What It Means for Your Booking and Why Hotel Prices in Japan Swing So Much: How to Not Overpay alongside the color dates.
Current year refinement comes from forecaster rounds starting in early September with an early October update, plus spot level reporting from late September (as of 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-05; confirm current rounds with the Japan Meteorological Corporation and the Japan Weather Association).15 Near departure, staged status labels from green through beginning to change, peak color, fading, and falling let you target spots already at peak rather than dates on a calendar.5
Build a flexible foliage itinerary
Mountains color first, then color spreads into city gardens, parks, and temples.2 That order creates natural backup logic. If a city still shows green, a higher site nearby may already be at peak, and if a mountain has already faded, the city below may be entering peak.
Staged per spot status supports reordering nearby stops in the final one to two weeks.5 High traffic rankings for spots such as Mount Takao, the Nikko Irohazaka area, Arashiyama, and the Meiji Jingu Gaien ginkgo avenue signal where weekday or early start timing matters most; for the timing tactics themselves, see Crowd-Avoidance Tactics That Actually Work: Timing, Not Just Destination.5
Good to know
A Kyoto peak date is not a Japan peak date
A Kyoto city peak does not transfer to another region or to a mountain. City lowland dates and mountain dates sit weeks apart in the same season, and Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Kyoto, and Kagoshima each carry their own average and yearly forecast in the same tables.12
Plan each stop on its own row. A trip that pairs Hokkaido mountains with Kyoto temples needs two separate timing bets, not one national date.
Temple garden peak color stays forecast dependent
A famous temple garden can peak days away from its city average in any given year. Spot level 2025 results show Arashiyama and Miyajima each shifting within or against their average windows (as of 2025-11-06).5
Forecasters publish about 700 such spot forecasts precisely because city averages are not spot guarantees (as of 2026-09-02).1 Check the spot row, not just the city row, in the final weeks.
Warm autumns have pushed recent peaks later
Recent warm autumns have tilted many peaks later than average, but that does not fix a rule for the next year. The 2025 third round attributes widespread lateness to above average September to mid October temperatures, and the 2026 first forecast again expects somewhat later than typical peaks on high temperatures.15
Treat each as a dated yearly estimate. The useful habit is watching the October round, not assuming every future season runs late by the same amount.
Night illuminations and peak crowds need their own plan
Peak color weeks at famous spots combine tight viewing with heavy crowds. High traffic rankings for Arashiyama, Mount Takao, Nikko, and Meiji Jingu Gaien signal where a weekday or early start changes the experience.5 Where evening illuminations or timed garden entries apply, check Sites in Japan That Require Advance Booking before assuming walk up entry. Tourism board spot guidance frames these as distinct destinations rather than interchangeable backdrops.3
The September first forecast is a planning input, not a booking lock. The forecaster schedules an early October update and spot level 2026 reporting starts in late September, so September dates refine materially before most November peaks (as of 2026-09-02 and 2026-09-05).15 Lock transport and anchor stays on averages, then reorder spots on the later rounds.
See also
- Should You Visit Japan Right Now?
- Japan Trip Checklist: What to Sort Out Before You Fly
- Typhoon Season and Tsunami Awareness for Visitors
- Autumn Harvest Guide: Chestnuts, Sweet Potatoes, Mushrooms